Dr. Nguyễn Trí Hiếu commented: “Foreign investors are waiting for the Vietnamese real estate market to hit bottom before moving in to acquire assets.” He expressed expectations that the market could recover in the second half of 2023 after a period of sharp fluctuations.
According to Nhịp sống thị trường, when assessing the 2022 real estate market, Dr. Nguyễn Chí Hiếu summarized it as “rising quickly, falling quickly.” He further analyzed that while the first half of 2022 still showed positive signals, difficulties related to capital and liquidity soon caused the market to slow down significantly.
Notably, scandals in the corporate bond market and the decline in stock prices strongly impacted market sentiment. Unlike the 2011–2013 downturn, which stemmed from bad debts, the current challenges are rooted in a loss of confidence due to financial market turbulence affecting the property sector.
However, the expert emphasized that the real estate market would not freeze but rather enter a quiet phase with fewer transactions.
A key issue raised is the expectation that foreign investors are waiting for the market to bottom out before stepping in to acquire assets. This mindset is also common among individual buyers who are waiting for prices to reach their lowest point before entering the market.
Mr. Vũ Cương Quyết, CEO of Đất Xanh Miền Bắc, stated: “Foreign investors are simply waiting for Vietnamese companies to approach the brink of bankruptcy or for property prices to drop before buying in.”
According to Mr. Quyết, while the market faces difficulties, it is not fundamentally frozen. He described the current situation as a “psychological crisis” driven by excessive concern over short-term challenges. Real estate operates in cycles of growth and contraction, and the current downturn will pass. However, heightened anxiety has slowed liquidity.
Previously, Mr. Nguyễn Văn Đính, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, expressed concern that weakened domestic developers could create opportunities for foreign investors to acquire significant stakes or projects at discounted prices, potentially increasing foreign control over the Vietnamese real estate market.
A Wave of Major M&A Deals
A recent report by Cushman & Wakefield indicated that real estate M&A transactions increased in the first nine months of 2022. The total estimated transaction value exceeded USD 1.5 billion during this period — the highest level recorded in the past five years. Deals were concentrated in industrial, office, residential, and hospitality segments in key cities such as Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Bình Dương, and Đồng Nai.
Many of these transactions were negotiated during disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and finalized in 2022. According to the report, investors involved were experienced players familiar with market risks and demand fluctuations, aiming for strong returns or portfolio expansion within the region.
Commenting on transaction characteristics, Mr. Sử Ngọc Khương, Senior Director at Savills Vietnam, noted that foreign investors typically acquire operational projects and divest after six to seven years.
If profit margins exceed financial costs and inflation risks, Vietnam will remain an attractive investment destination. Market researchers observed that investors are prioritizing projects generating stable cash flow through M&A transactions in office buildings, shopping centers, industrial parks, and serviced apartments.
Market analysts predict that given current fluctuations, the number of foreign acquisitions of Vietnamese projects is likely to increase significantly in 2023.
Ms. Trang Bùi, General Director of Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam, stated that the market slowdown reflects global economic instability. Investors are currently in a wait-and-see phase. Additionally, many projects face legal obstacles, limiting product availability for acquisition.
However, as policies become clearer in 2023, real estate M&A activity is expected to accelerate, with foreign investors playing a leading role.
Ms. Trang Bùi emphasized that domestic investors’ heavy reliance on financial leverage — particularly bank loans and corporate bonds — has made them vulnerable. Those overextended are facing difficulties, creating opportunities for patient investors with clear strategies.
Many experts believe that investors must reassess and adjust their M&A strategies with greater flexibility to adapt to the evolving business environment. Today, M&A is no longer merely a strategy for asset accumulation but has become a solution for strengthening internal capabilities and enhancing competitiveness.
Furthermore, the objective of M&A transactions is gradually shifting from competition and confrontation toward investment and collaboration, creating synergistic value for mutual development.